The Group of Seven foreign ministers gathered at the Abbey of Vaux-de-Cernay outside Paris this week for what was supposed to be a show of Western unity. It was anything but. The meeting exposed deep divisions between the United States and its closest allies over the conduct, duration, and endgame of the Iran war — divisions that a joint statement calling for the "immediate cessation" of attacks on civilian populations could not conceal.
The most striking moment came when Secretary of State Marco Rubio told his counterparts privately that the conflict could last "another two to four weeks." The timeline, first reported by Foreign Policy, alarmed European ministers who had been pressing for a ceasefire measured in days, not weeks. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot reportedly responded that Europe "cannot sustain another month of this."
The European Frustration
The frustration among European allies is not subtle. Several EU foreign ministers told reporters, on condition of anonymity, that they were not consulted before the United States launched strikes on February 28. They have watched the conflict drive oil prices above $100, push eurozone growth toward zero, and trigger inflation forecasts that have forced the ECB into an impossible policy position.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was particularly blunt, telling Rubio in the closed session that the war's economic consequences were "not an acceptable price for objectives that remain unclear." Italy's Antonio Tajani echoed the sentiment, noting that Italian businesses dependent on Middle Eastern trade routes were "haemorrhaging money every day the strait remains closed."
Russia's Role
The one area of consensus was Russia. European intelligence services presented evidence that Moscow has been providing Iran with targeting data, satellite imagery, and electronic warfare support. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy described the intelligence as "deeply concerning" and called for a coordinated response.
The accusation adds a new dimension to the conflict. If Russia is actively aiding Iran's military operations — including the missile strikes that hit a Saudi airbase and injured American troops this week — then the Iran war is not just a bilateral conflict but a proxy engagement with Moscow. The implications for NATO planning and European security are significant.
Rubio's Sales Pitch
Rubio arrived in France with a clear objective: convince allies that the American strategy is working and that patience will be rewarded with a diplomatic settlement. He pointed to the extended strike pause, the back-channel communications through Pakistan and Oman, and what he described as "meaningful movement" in Iranian positions as evidence that the endgame is approaching.
The allies were not persuaded. One European diplomat described Rubio's presentation as "optimistic to the point of detachment from reality." Another said the American timeline of two to four weeks was "the same timeline we were given two weeks ago." The credibility gap between Washington's narrative and the situation on the ground is widening with each passing day.
What the Joint Statement Actually Says
The final communiqué called for the immediate cessation of attacks against civilian populations and infrastructure, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, and the resumption of diplomatic engagement through established channels. It did not call for a ceasefire. It did not blame any party. It did not threaten consequences. It was, in the assessment of most observers, the minimum that seven nations could agree upon — and a reflection of just how fractured the Western alliance has become.