The Sunday Whip Count — Speaker Johnson Closes the Saturday Conference Call at Twenty-Three Republicans Soft on H.Res.939, the Office of Legal Counsel Memorandum Defending the ‘Hostilities Terminated’ Claim Runs Fourteen Pages, the Senate Republican Parallel Call Holds at Three Defectors, the Wednesday Floor Calendar Survives the Weekend and the Trump White House Holds the War Powers Position into the Working Week
Speaker Mike Johnson closed the Saturday-evening Republican conference call at twenty-three House Republicans soft on the Trump war-powers position, on the working tally one of his deputies briefed Sunday-show producers at six on Sunday morning Eastern. The Office of Legal Counsel memorandum defending the President’s ‘hostilities have terminated’ claim, on the version forwarded to the Senate Republican leadership at midnight Saturday, runs to fourteen pages and four signed footnotes. The Senate parallel call held at three soft votes overnight. The Wednesday floor calendar for H.Res.939 survives the weekend and the Trump White House holds the war-powers position into the working week.
The Saturday Conference Call
Speaker Johnson opened the Saturday-evening Republican conference call at six on Saturday evening Eastern, on the working brief his communications team circulated through the lobby pool at five. The agenda, on the line one of the deputy whips gave the Sunday papers at midnight, ran to two items: the operational status of the bombing pause in Iran on the seven-eight ceasefire line, and the floor calendar for H.Res.939, the resolution of inquiry tabled by the House Foreign Affairs Committee Democratic ranking member that asks the President for the legal authorities under which the United States continues to maintain naval forces in active engagement in the Strait of Hormuz. The call broke up at twenty-three minutes past eight on Saturday evening. The closing tally, on the working count two of the deputy whips signed off on at half past nine on Saturday evening, stands at twenty-three Republicans soft on the President’s ‘terminated’ line and not yet at a hard No.
The OLC Memorandum at Fourteen Pages
The Office of Legal Counsel memorandum defending the President’s claim that the May 1 War Powers Resolution clock does not apply, on the version the White House counsel’s office forwarded to the Senate Republican leadership at twelve minutes past midnight Sunday morning, runs to fourteen pages, four signed footnotes and a four-page appendix on the ‘hostilities have terminated’ line of authority. The argument, on the working summary one Senate Republican counsel circulated at half past one Sunday morning, is structured around three points: that the Iran bombing campaign was a discrete operation rather than a continuing war; that the seventh of April ceasefire was the operational end of hostilities; and that the residual maritime engagements in the Strait of Hormuz are defensive in character and do not, on the OLC reading, constitute ‘hostilities’ under the meaning of the War Powers Resolution. The argument is, on the working assessment of three former senior Justice Department lawyers contacted by Sunday political editors, “a stretch on the second point and a strain on the third.”
The Senate Parallel Call at Three
The Senate Republican parallel conference call, on the John Thune leadership line, opened at seven on Saturday evening Eastern and broke up at half past eight. The closing tally, on the working count one of the leadership aides briefed reporters Sunday morning, holds at three soft votes: Senators Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul. The figure is two below the working number two weeks ago and one below the figure on Friday morning before the OLC memorandum was forwarded to the leadership. The Senate calendar for the week, on the cloakroom line at six on Sunday morning, places the Iran war-powers question fourth, behind the appropriations supplemental, the judicial-confirmation calendar and the China economic-coercion package. The Senate, on the working line, will not return to the war-powers question until the second week of June at the earliest.
The Virginia Map and the Indiana Primaries
The Virginia Supreme Court ruling at sixteen-forty-two on Friday afternoon Eastern, blocking the new Democratic-drawn congressional map four-to-three, has, on the working count by the National Republican Congressional Committee through Saturday evening, restored four Republican-held seats to the November 2021 boundaries. The Indiana Republican primary results, certified at noon on Saturday Eastern, defeated five of the state legislators who voted against the March redistricting plan by margins of twelve to twenty-three points. Both results, on the working briefing the NRCC sent to House Republican members on Sunday morning, hold the working majority for the redistricting fight in the southern states through the working week. The Tennessee map, on the same brief, returns to the State Senate floor on Tuesday afternoon Nashville time.
The Trump White House Holds the Position
The Trump White House, on the line the press secretary gave the Sunday political pool at half past nine on Sunday morning Eastern, holds the war-powers position. “The hostilities have terminated and the President’s view on the legal question has not changed.” The Wednesday floor calendar for H.Res.939, on the working brief from the Speaker’s office at ten on Sunday morning Eastern, survives the weekend. The honest reading of the Sunday whip count is that the President will not lose the floor vote on Wednesday morning, that the OLC memorandum is doing the work it was forwarded to do, and that the working position holds into the week. The number to watch into Wednesday is twenty-three: the soft count Speaker Johnson closed the Saturday call on, and the floor count which would, if it hardens overnight Tuesday, force the Speaker to keep the resolution off the calendar a second time.