At 46%, President Trump’s approval rating looks unremarkable. It’s roughly where it’s been for most of his second term — slightly below the historic average for presidents at this stage, but within the range of political viability. The headline number suggests stability. The underlying data suggests trouble.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows slight improvements across “nearly every policy area,” which the White House has predictably seized on as evidence that the public supports its agenda. But approval ratings are lagging indicators. They tell you where voters were, not where they’re going. And several factors suggest that the political ground is shifting beneath Republican feet.

The Iran Problem

The war with Iran was supposed to be the kind of decisive military action that rallies the public around the flag. And initially, it did. Trump’s numbers ticked up in the first week of the conflict. But three weeks in, with the Strait of Hormuz closed and petrol prices surging, the rally-around-the-flag effect is fading. Americans are now paying $3.88 per gallon at the pump — and rising — and the connection between the war and their wallets is becoming impossible to ignore.

History shows that wars are popular when they’re quick and cheap. This one is neither. The Pentagon has requested $200 billion in supplemental funding. The conflict shows no signs of reaching a resolution. And every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the economic pain intensifies.

The GOP Crack-Up

The more immediate midterm risk is internal. The Republican Party is not united behind the war. Rep. Lauren Boebert has publicly refused to support war spending. Other GOP members have raised constitutional questions about the lack of Congressional authorisation. The crack-up is still at the murmur stage, but midterm campaigns have a way of amplifying dissent.

Meanwhile, the intelligence community’s worldwide threat assessment hearing this week saw top officials — including DNI Tulsi Gabbard, FBI Director Kash Patel and CIA Director John Ratcliffe — testifying before the House Intelligence Committee. The hearing produced no obvious political bombshells, but it reminded voters that the national security establishment Trump installed is still finding its footing.

The Economic Vulnerability

If there is one number that should terrify Republican strategists, it’s the gas price. Midterm elections are won and lost on kitchen-table issues. In 2022, Democrats paid the price for inflation. In 2026, Republicans could face the same backlash — except this time, the inflation is directly traceable to a war their President started.

The irony is bitter. Trump ran on the promise of $2 gas and an end to foreign wars. He has delivered $4 gas and a new one. Whether voters punish him for it in November depends on how long the war lasts, how high prices go, and whether the opposition can articulate a clear alternative. At 46%, there is no margin for error.