Donald Trump woke up on April 1 and lit three separate fires. First, he claimed Iran’s president had asked the United States for a ceasefire. Then he threatened to pull America out of NATO. Then he told allies struggling with the oil crisis to “build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT.” By lunchtime, the world’s two most important military alliances were in crisis, the war’s belligerents were publicly contradicting each other about whether peace talks even existed, and oil was climbing toward $120.
The ceasefire that wasn’t
Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s president had “asked for a ceasefire” and that the US would consider it only once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. He added: “Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!”
Iran denied it immediately. Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry, called Trump’s claim “false and baseless.” The IRGC declared the strait was “fully under its control” and would remain closed to hostile nations. This is the pattern of the war: Trump claims progress, Iran denies it, and nothing changes on the ground.
In a separate interview, Trump told Axios the negotiations were “going well” and said the war could be over in two to three weeks. “We’ll be leaving very soon,” he said, adding that gas prices would then “come tumbling down.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that he had “no faith in talks with Washington.”
The NATO threat
In an interview with the Telegraph published on Wednesday, Trump said he was “strongly considering” pulling the United States out of NATO. He told Reuters he is “absolutely” considering withdrawal and would criticise the alliance in his primetime address tonight.
The trigger is allied refusal to support the Iran war. European leaders have fumed since the conflict began because they were not informed before the strikes. NATO members have declined to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz or provide logistical support for the campaign. Trump views this as freeloading on American security while refusing to share the burden.
There is a legal obstacle. Congress passed a law in 2023 stipulating that the president cannot withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty without the advice and consent of the Senate, with a two-thirds supermajority required. Trump is unlikely to get that vote. But the threat alone is enough to destabilise the alliance and terrify European capitals that depend on American security guarantees.
Tonight’s address
The White House confirmed that Trump will deliver an “important update on Iran” to the nation at 9pm ET. The address comes on Day 33 of the war, with over 3,000 killed, oil above $116, the Strait of Hormuz still closed, and no credible diplomatic process in sight.
What Trump says tonight will matter enormously. If he announces a genuine ceasefire pathway, markets will rally and the world will exhale. If he escalates — authorising ground operations, striking energy infrastructure, or formally threatening NATO withdrawal — the consequences will be measured in lives and trillions of dollars. The man who started this war is about to tell the world what comes next.