The British Retail Consortium's consumer confidence tracker fell to -53 in March, its lowest reading since the index was established in 2024. The collapse in sentiment reflects the cascading impact of the Iran war on British households: energy prices rising, food inflation accelerating, petrol costs climbing, and a pervasive anxiety about what comes next. The number is worse than the depths of the 2022 energy crisis. It is worse than anything recorded during the pandemic. It is a measure of a population that has lost faith in the economy's direction.
The timing is politically brutal for Keir Starmer's government. Parliament breaks for the Easter recess on Thursday, and MPs will return to their constituencies facing constituents who are angry, frightened, and increasingly convinced that the government has no plan. The Spring Statement two weeks ago offered nothing on energy costs. The Chancellor's promise to plan for "every eventuality" has not translated into any visible policy. The government is governing by reassurance, and the public is not reassured.
The Energy Squeeze
The primary driver of the confidence collapse is energy. The Ofgem price cap is forecast to jump approximately 20% in July, taking the average household bill to nearly £2,000 a year. But the price cap only reflects wholesale costs with a lag, and wholesale costs are still rising. Brent crude remains above $100. European natural gas futures are at their highest since the winter of 2022. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through the summer — and there is no credible prospect of it reopening soon — the October price cap could be even higher.
Food prices are following energy upward. The BRC's separate shop price index showed food inflation accelerating to 4.2% in March, up from 3.8% in February. Transport costs, which feed into the price of everything, have risen as diesel and petrol prices climb. The Bank of England's latest projection has CPI inflation returning to approximately 5% by the autumn — a level that would wipe out the modest gains in real wages that workers achieved in 2025.
The Political Vacuum
Starmer's government has been paralysed by the speed of the economic deterioration. The fiscal rules established in last year's Budget leave almost no room for significant spending interventions. The Chancellor cannot borrow to fund an energy support package without either breaking her own rules or redefining them — either of which would trigger a market reaction that could push gilt yields higher and mortgage rates with them.
The opposition is offering nothing more useful. The Conservatives, polling at 18%, have called for tax cuts they cannot fund. Reform UK, polling at 28%, has called for an emergency energy price freeze without explaining how it would be paid for. The policy vacuum is bipartisan, and the public knows it.
What Easter Means
Parliament does not return until April 21. That is nearly four weeks in which no legislation can be introduced, no ministerial statements can be made from the dispatch box, and no Select Committee hearings can hold the government to account. If the Iran war escalates, if energy prices spike further, if the economy tips into the recession that economists are now warning about, the government will be on holiday.
The BRC confidence number is a lagging indicator — it measures how people felt last month, not how they will feel next month. But the factors driving the collapse are all getting worse, not better. Energy prices are rising. The strait is closed. Inflation is accelerating. And the government that promised change is delivering continuity with a grimmer face. A confidence reading of -53 is not a number. It is a verdict.